By virtue of the MLB season being younger than one week old, all reactions are overreactions. That won’t stop us from wondering if the early-season struggles of the batters below are part of a larger issue.
Josh Bell
.059/.292/.059 with 0 HR, 1 RBI and 1 run
Through his first five games, Bell has driven in one more run than you or me. That’s due to him managing only 1 hit through his first 17 at bats. On the positive side, Bell has walked at a very high rate, leading to a .292 OBP that isn’t quite as horrific as that .059 batting average. That’s about where the positives end.
Over the past couple seasons, Bell has become an extreme groundball hitter. Along with that, his power has been rapidly fading from his game. A guy that hit 37 homers in 2019, hit only 17 homers last season in 13 more games played. Groundballs are essentially the only thing that have come off of Bell’s bat this season, with 85% of his balls in play being hit on the ground! And those groundballs have been hit even softer than usual, continuing a long-term trend of Bell’s contact being weaker and more groundball heavy. It’s a small sample size, of course, but this start to Bell’s season suggests he hasn’t fixed the major issues in his swing.
Ke’Bryan Hayes
.100/.100/.150 with 0 HR, 1 RBI and 2 runs
We transition from a former Pirates top prospect to a current Pirates top prospect. Hayes has established himself as a premier defensive player. In his second full season, the Pirates are relying on Hayes to take a step forward with his bat. That has not happened yet in 2023.
There are at least some positive signs. Hayes’ hard hit rate is up from last season, along with his flyball rate. Unfortunately, those extra flyballs have been mostly of the infield popup variety. Overall, Hayes has seen a 10 percentage point drop in linedrives, which are being replaced with groundballs and infield popups. That’s not a good tradeoff. Now, if this approach suggests that Hayes is trying to get more elevation on his batted balls, then you can see where this might pay dividends as the season progresses. Since Hayes is at least hitting the ball hard, a minor adjustment might lead those infield flys to turn into long balls.
Eduardo Escobar
.100/.143/.100 with 0 HR, 0 RBI and 1 run
Over his career, Escobar has reliably provided approximately a league average bat. His team can count on something around a .250 average with a .300 OBP and 20+ HR pop. Based on how this season has started, Escobar has a long way to go to get back to those expectations. The explanation for Escobar’s struggles, at least at the surface level, are quite obvious. He has put 1 or 2 balls into play that can be classified as hard hit. Additionally, a guy that typically puts around 70% of batted balls into the air as linedrives or flyballs has hit almost 50% of balls on the ground. Of those he’s hit in the air, a substantial portion have been infield popups (2/3rds of his flyballs are on the infield!).
Similar to Josh Bell, Escobar has been a weak-hitting groundball hitter this year. Unlike Bell, this is not the continuation of a longer-term trend. This looks like one of those random slumps that a hitter deals with during the season. It just so happened to come at the start of the year for Escobar. His numbers will presumably start looking normal sooner rather than later.
Kyle Schwarber
.136/.136/.273 with 1 HR, 3 RBI and 1 run
It’s a low bar, but Schwarber’s season looks much better than the three guys above. He has even hit a home run! When you look under the hood at Schwarber’s performance this year, there’s not much to be concerned about long term. Sure, he hasn’t walked yet this season and his strikeouts are up a bit, but those will certainly normalize. He’s putting the vast majority of balls in the air and they aren’t particularly weak.
The best explanation is probably just that the ball has been slightly missing the barrel of the bat, causing a few too many popups and not enough linedrives/home run balls. Schwarber’s coming off a 46-homer season. It shouldn’t be long until his numbers start to look familiar.
Pete Alonso
.136/.269/.318 with 1 HR, 2 RBI and 4 runs
Another guy struggling to follow-up a 40 HR season, Alonso is actually striking out less and walking more than usual. That improved plate discipline speaks well to his future production, but it hasn’t worked out yet. Much like several of the guys on this list, his struggles can be traced back to two fundamental issues: way more groundballs than usual and a lack of velocity off the bat.
Interestingly, Alonso has been swinging less frequently at the plate, regardless of whether the pitch is inside or outside of the strike zone. This patient approach has led to those additional walks and fewer strikeouts, but a less aggressive approach could also be hurting his offensive output. It remains to be seen whether this is the product of an actual change in approach for Alonso or simply the result of a small sample size.
A few weeks from now, it will be fascinating to see who has put these struggles behind them and who is still failing to produce.