Constructing an MLB Hall of Fame Pyramid: The First Base Candidates
Identifying the best first baseman for every season from 1900 through 2022
Over the next several months, I plan to reconstruct the MLB Hall of Fame from the ground up with some new wrinkles. First, the standards for a Hall of Famer will be raised. The doors will be locked for the “he was decent for a long time” stat compilers. Second, this means that the main criteria will be dominance. Borrowing from Bill James’ Keltner List, we are most interested in players that were regarded as the best player at their position for an extended stretch of time or who spent time in the conversation for best player in the league. Third, now borrowing from a Bill Simmons idea, we don’t simply want a list of players who are “Hall of Famers.” We need a way to differentiate between the borderline entrants and the true legends of the game. We need a pyramid!
In this first round of articles, we will be going position by position and identifying the best player at a position for every season from 1900 through 2022. This will give us an initial list of candidates for the MLB Hall of Fame Pyramid.
Catcher Candidates (Note: see this article for further explanation of how we’re defining “best” player)
As with the article on catchers, let’s first look at who I have identified as the best player at the position in every year from 1900 through 2022. One quick note: I only considered a player if his primary position was first base in the respective season. Quite a few elite players only spent a few seasons of their career at 1B, e.g. Hank Aaron at the end of his career, Willie Stargell after his prime spent in the outfield, Stan Musial at the beginning and end of his career, etc. There were also guys like Miguel Cabrera that bounced between positions, like Miggy moving back and forth between 1B and 3B from season to season earlier in his career.
Year-by-Year Ranking of the Best First Baseman
1900: Ed Delahanty
1901: Joe Kelley
1902: Jake Beckley
1903-1908: Frank Chance
1909-1912: Ed Konetchy
1913-1914: Stuffy McInnis
1915: Jack Fournier
1916: Jake Daubert
1917-1922: George Sisler
1923-1925: Jack Fournier
1926-1932: Lou Gehrig
1933-1934: Jimmie Foxx
1935-1937: Lou Gehrig
1938: Hank Greenberg
1939: Jimmie Foxx
1940: Hank Greenberg
1941-1942: Johnny Mize
1943: Elbie Fletcher
1944: Nick Etten
1945: Phil Cavarretta
1946-1947: Stan Musial
1948-1950: Johnny Mize
1951-1954: Gil Hodges
1955-1958: Stan Musial
1959-1960: Frank Robinson
1961-1963: Norm Cash
1964: Orlando Cepeda
1965-1971: Willie McCovey
1972-1974: Dick Allen
1975: Willie Stargell
1976-1978: Rod Carew
1979-1981: Keith Hernandez
1982-1985: Eddie Murray
1986-1987: Don Mattingly
1988-1989: Will Clark
1990: Fred McGriff
1991: Will Clark
1992-1995: Frank Thomas
1996: Mark McGwire
1997: Jeff Bagwell
1998: Mark McGwire
1999-2000: Jeff Bagwell
2001-2003: Jason Giambi
2004-2010: Albert Pujols
2011: Miguel Cabrera
2012-2013: Joey Votto
2014: Miguel Cabrera
2015-2017: Joey Votto
2018: Paul Goldschmidt
2019-2022: Freddie Freeman
Hall of Fame First Basemen that Missed the List
*Note: JAWS (Jay Jaffe’s WAR Score system) is a measure of a player's Hall of Fame “worthiness” based on WAR. It equals the average of a player’s career WAR and their 7-year peak WAR. The above table lists a player’s JAWS ranking among all first basemen in baseball history.
Cap Anson played entirely before 1900. That disqualifies him from our list. Same for Dan Brouthers and Roger Connor.
Jim Bottomley’s best seasons overlapped with Jack Fournier’s peak and then Lou Gehrig’s prime. While Bottomley did win the 1928 NL MVP, it’s debatable that he deserved it. There just aren’t enough standout years in his career for consideration into the Hall of Fame Pyramid.
George Kelly was a solid player for about seven years. There’s just not enough there to make the cut.
Harmon Killebrew won an MVP in 1969 and was in the MVP discussion for a decade. He easily makes it to the next round.
Buck Leonard played in the Negro Leagues, which unfortunately makes him disqualified at this stage. We will revisit Leonard, Mule Suttles and Ben Taylor in the coming weeks.
Tony Pérez is a tough case. He had only one top 5 MVP finish, although he had a case to win the MVP in 1970 over teammate Johnny Bench. His peak overlapped with Willie McCovey and Dick Allen, which made topping the first base position nearly impossible. Let’s keep Pérez around. He might be able to sneak onto the Pyramid.
Bill Terry easily deserves consideration. His career came at the worst possible time, as it was completely overshadowed by legends Lou Gehrig and Jimmie Foxx. Terry had multiple MVP caliber seasons in the 1930s, which is enough to move on to the next stage.
Speaking of bad timing, Jim Thome ranks 10th all-time at 1B according to JAWS, but his career overlapped with Frank Thomas, Mark McGwire, Jeff Bagwell and Jason Giambi. The strongest case for Thome’s MLB Hall of Fame inclusion is longevity, as Thome hit at a well-above-average level from the age of 22 until he left the game at 41. That longevity matters less for the HoF Pyramid; however, Thome’s peak contained five exceptional seasons and several other strong seasons. He’s probably not a top 10 first baseman of all-time, but he’s almost certainly within the top 20. That’s enough to belong in consideration.
Candidates for Consideration in HoF Pyramid:
Harmon Killebrew, Tony Pérez, Bill Terry, Jim Thome
First Basemen that Topped Their Position
*Players with an * by their JAWS ranking did not primarily play at 1B. The rankings shown for these players are what their JAWS rankings would be if ranked against first basemen.
At this stage, all of these guys will automatically qualify for the next round of consideration. Many won’t make it onto the Pyramid.
Some observations
This comes as no surprise, but Lou Gehrig was absolutely dominant. If not for a two-year run by Jimmie Foxx that forced me to list Foxx over Gehrig in 1933-1934, then Gehrig would have held the title as MLB’s best first baseman for 12 straight years. Ten straight years still easily tops the list. (Of course, in an alternate reality where Gehrig pursues a non-baseball career, then Foxx might have ten seasons atop the position of his own.)
Other than Gehrig’s run, the next-closest are Albert Pujols (seven straight seasons in the 2000s) and Willie McCovey (seven straight seasons in the late 1960s/early 1970s). While Hall of Famer Willie McCovey stands as a top 10-15 first baseman of all-time, future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols represents the closest threat to Gehrig’s status as the 1B GOAT. It’s still Lou Gehrig, but nobody besides Pujols can even make a plausible case (note: I’m considering Stan Musial to be primarily an outfielder, or else Gehrig would have another contender).
Researching this list revealed that Joey Votto might just be extremely underrated. When we start to order players on the HoF Pyramid, Votto could end up higher than I would have anticipated.
Johnny Mize was a heck of a player! He was in the mix for top first baseman from 1937-1942, but Lou Gehrig, Hank Greenberg and Jimmie Foxx stood in his way until Mize’s two-year run in 1941-1942. He then missed the next three full seasons due to WWII military service. Returning in 1946, Mize posted better offensive rate stats than before his multi-year absence. Unfortunately for Mize, Stan Musial had moved to 1B at that time and stood atop the position in 1946 and 1947. Johnny Mize finally got his chance in 1948 and reeled off three more seasons at the top of the position, bringing his career total to five seasons. That’s a mark shared with Joey Votto and topped by only six other first basemen.
Freddie Freeman, the most recent player on the list, has a shot for the MLB Hall of Fame. One or two more MVP-caliber seasons and a graceful aging should be enough.
Jake Daubert won the 1913 NL MVP. Did he deserve it? Maybe not. Did he win it? Apparently so. It was a simpler time in 1913 where winning the batting title was sufficient to win the MVP. Fortunately for Daubert, he didn’t play in the AL that season where Walter Johnson with his 36 wins and 1.14 ERA easily won the AL MVP. The AL had four other guys (Shoeless Joe, Eddie Collins, Tris Speaker and Home Run Baker) who probably would have all won the NL MVP over Daubert. But, according to the record, Daubert is an NL MVP and nobody can take that away from him!
Mark McGwire is an all-time great. He hit 583 career home runs. I vividly remember seeing McGwire homer in-person during his 70 home run season. All that said, his healthy peak was very short. I suppose that’s what happens when an athlete peaks in their mid-30s.
Next up, the second base candidates!