MLB Best Bets: April 10th
Best values on the board for the April 10th slate of baseball games
Throughout the season, I will be tracking my daily best bets. For those not interested in these articles, I have set up MLB Best Bets as a separate section. You can unsubscribe from those, while still remaining subscribed to receive all my other baseball articles. For those interested in receiving these bets as soon as I make them, rather than waiting for the write-ups, you can find the bets on my Twitter feed.
MLB 2023: 14-18 -1.7 units (-5.6% ROI)
Ok, not a bad day! We had another bullpen collapse (Nationals blowing a 3-run lead) but the Reds had an outstanding 9th inning comeback to make-up for their 9th inning blown lead yesterday. The Red Sox and Yankees were sweat-free wins, while the Twins and Cubs got destroyed. Overall, we were 3-3 for +0.3 units thanks to the big plus money win with Cincy. Had the Nats held on, we would have been up 2.5 units on the day and we’d be back to positive on the year. Oh well, I’ll accept the small profit and move on to a new week.
First, a couple housekeeping items. One, if you choose to tail these bets, always bet responsibly! Two, always choose the “Listed Pitcher” option. This means that if one of the starting pitchers gets scratched before the game, then the bet is Void. The below bets have value based on the starting pitcher matchups. We don’t want to get locked into a bet where a different starting pitcher gets named. Three, always shop for the best lines. I am posting the odds from FanDuel and DraftKings, but you can likely find better odds if you look around.
There are six plays on the card today, almost all of which are underdogs. Don’t worry, we are taking a break from the Reds and Nationals! Also, I might add one more play later, depending on how the Padres look tonight.
Bet #1: Chicago White Sox ML +105 (DraftKings)
Risk 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Dylan Cease is awesome and getting better every year. He’s matched up against Kenta Maeda, who we backed in his 1-0 loss to Sandy Alcantara last time out. At the end of that start, Maeda was shaking his arm, which led to him being removed. Maeda has described it as arm fatigue. Remember, Maeda had Tommy John surgery in 2021 and this was his first MLB start since then. I hope Maeda is healthy, but there’s certainly an increased risk of Maeda being ineffective with a fatigued arm.
Whether Maeda is completely healthy or not, Cease is the superior pitcher. Today’s shutout by the Pirates aside, the White Sox offense is performing much better in the early season than Minnesota’s. Minnesota only scored one run today themselves.
We’re getting plus odds here on the better SP and the hotter offense. Sign me up!
Bet #2: New York Yankees ML +128 (FanDuel)
Risk 1 unit to win 1.28 units
Unlike the first bet, we’re taking the clear pitching disadvantage here, as Cleveland’s ace Shane Bieber is throwing. Domingo Germán for the Yankees isn’t a bad pitcher, but he’s more of a solid mid-rotation guy. The reason I lean toward New York here is because they just have so much more power in their lineup than Cleveland. Thus, the Yankees won’t necessarily need to string a bunch of hits together to score off of Bieber. Getting the Yankees at +128 is an opportunity that’s too hard to pass up.
Bet #3: Pittsburgh Pirates ML +158 (FanDuel)
Risk 1 unit to win 1.58 units
The Red Sox were very kind to us this weekend, but Roansy Contreras was able to silence Boston in his first start. I’m expecting Roansy to have a breakout year, so I don’t see Framber Valdez as having an enormous edge over Roansy.
Overall, the Pirates are off to a 6-3 start, whereas the Astros are only 4-6. Over the course of the season, the Astros will obviously outperform the Pirates, but at this moment, the gap between these two teams doesn’t justify a +158 price on Pittsburgh. The loss of Oneil Cruz for Pittsburgh will hurt them over the rest of the season, but they should be able to survive without Cruz in this matchup.
Bet #4: Oakland Athletics ML +156 (FanDuel)
Risk 1 unit to win 1.56 units
I mentioned this in the writeup for the Yankees matchup against Baltimore today: “The Orioles came out of the gates putting up a ton of runs in the first couple games of the year; however, that offense has slowed down considerably the past week.” Now, Oakland has been shutout the past two games, but that was against the undefeated Rays, who are smashing everyone. I think we are getting good value here, as people are underrating Oakland coming off of an impossible series against Tampa. Baltimore is not that level of competition.
Oh, and JP Sears is better than Kyle Gibson. So we also have the SP edge at a +156 line.
Bet #5: Tampa Bay Rays ML -145 (DraftKings)
Risk 1.45 units to win 1 unit
After three consecutive wins betting on Boston this weekend, we’re flipping to the other side. Tampa is 9-0 and has won every game by at least 4 runs. I certainly don’t think a mediocre pitcher like Nick Pivetta will slow down Tampa Bay. Unlike Tampa, the Red Sox have shown their offense can be silenced by quality competition. Tampa and Jalen Beeks/Josh Fleming qualify as quality. The Rays have typically been -200 or heavier favorites this year. I’m excited to see a price tag within a range that we can actually take.
Bet #6: Kansas City Royals ML +140 (DraftKings)
Risk 1 unit to win 1.4 units
The Royals really ruined our weekend by upsetting the Giants twice as big underdogs. I laid off the Giants today, because the moneyline was slightly too juicy for me to recommend (-165) and, of course, the Giants made an 8th inning comeback to win.
At 39-years-old, Zack Greinke is still sneaky effective. He has fared very well in his first two starts, allowing 1 run to Toronto and 2 runs to Minnesota. On the flip side, Andrew Heaney was crushed in his only start for 7 runs against Baltimore. Which pitcher do I trust for one start? It would still be Heaney, but the gap isn’t large. And Heaney comes with more downside risk tomorrow than Greinke.
Today was the first day that the Rangers bats were effective all week. At +140, I’m willing to bet that the Rangers’ offense can be contained tomorrow by Greinke.