MLB Best Bets: April 11th
Best values on the board for the April 11th slate of baseball games
Throughout the season, I will be tracking my daily best bets. For those not interested in these articles, I have set up MLB Best Bets as a separate section. You can unsubscribe from those, while still remaining subscribed to receive all my other baseball articles. For those interested in receiving these bets as soon as I make them, rather than waiting for the write-ups, you can find the bets on my Twitter feed.
MLB 2023: 14-18 -4.7 units (-12.2% ROI)
Well, that was not a good day to be backing a bunch of underdogs. Favorites crushed. Our two winners were a favorite (Tampa) and the White Sox, who I gave out as a +105 underdog but closed as a -140 favorite. Our five true underdogs all got destroyed, except the Yankees, who scored 2 runs in the first before even recording an out and somehow managed to lose 3-2… We ended up down just under 3 units on the day, our worst day of the season. Let’s rebound tomorrow.
First, a couple housekeeping items. One, if you choose to tail these bets, always bet responsibly! Two, always choose the “Listed Pitcher” option. This means that if one of the starting pitchers gets scratched before the game, then the bet is Void. The below bets have value based on the starting pitcher matchups. We don’t want to get locked into a bet where a different starting pitcher gets named. Three, always shop for the best lines. I am posting the odds from FanDuel and DraftKings, but you can likely find better odds if you look around.
For now, I am locking in one play. I might have 2-3 more tomorrow morning. Almost all the favorites tomorrow are very heavily juiced, which is making it hard to find value without betting a team like Pittsburgh again.
Bet #1: Chicago White Sox ML +126 (FanDuel)
Risk 1 unit to win 1.26 units
We got tremendous closing line value on our White Sox bet today and it cashed for us. It should have cashed with ease, but the White Sox infield forgot how to field, leading to a couple unearned runs and a third run that was effectively unearned.
I don’t really see Pablo Lopez as much of an advantage over Lance Lynn. Lynn is coming off a bad start, but he apparently was dealing with an illness. Assuming he’s feeling fine tomorrow, then we’re getting the hotter offense and a nearly even pitching matchup at plus money. If I’m getting plus odds, I’m going to continue to fade this Twins offense, as I don’t have much faith in them yet this year.