MLB Best Bets: April 7th
Best values on the board for the April 7th slate of baseball games
Throughout the season, I will be tracking my daily best bets. For those not interested in these articles, I have set up MLB Best Bets as a separate section. You can unsubscribe from those, while still remaining subscribed to receive all my other baseball articles. For those interested in receiving these bets as soon as I make them, rather than waiting for the write-ups, you can find the bets on my Twitter feed.
MLB 2023: 7-9 +1.66 units (13.3% ROI)
We still have the Dodgers pending tonight and the Reds were rained out this afternoon, so we are sitting at 1-0 +0.5 units for the day! After a shaky start for Chris Sale, who began with 8 straight balls to open the game before striking out the next 3 batters, he settled in and the Red Sox offense took advantage of a weak Tigers’ bullpen. Once the Red Sox got the lead, the last few innings were relatively stress-free for us. As I said in my write-up, the Red Sox had the clear advantage on offense and in the bullpen, we just needed Sale not to implode. He did his job well enough and the offense provided plenty of run support.
First, a couple housekeeping items. One, if you choose to tail these bets, always bet responsibly! Two, always choose the “Listed Pitcher” option. This means that if one of the starting pitchers gets scratched before the game, then the bet is Void. The below bets have value based on the starting pitcher matchups. We don’t want to get locked into a bet where a different starting pitcher gets named. Three, always shop for the best lines. I am posting the odds from FanDuel and DraftKings, but you can likely find better odds if you look around.
We are going back to full unit plays moving forward, now that I’ve seen a week’s worth of these teams play.
Bet #1: Cincinnati Reds ML +176 (FanDuel)
1 unit risked to win 1.76 units
(Note: We had this exact play for today, but it was rained out. Now we get the Reds at even better odds than we originally had! The write-up is essentially what I wrote yesterday). The Phillies are 1-5 to start the season. I’m not sure they should be -210 favorites against anyone, let alone a Reds team that’s been putting up runs so far this year.
Hunter Greene showed last year that he has a tremendously high ceiling, throwing a 1.02 ERA in the second half. That dominance was on display in his first start, striking out 8 in only 3 ⅓ innings pitched. Unfortunately, he allowed 3 runs and didn’t show great control. Zack Wheeler gave up 4 earned runs in his first start and struck out 7 over 4 ⅓ innings. Both pitched much better than their ERAs suggest.
If Greene is on his game and the Reds offense continues its high-powered start, then +176 is a great value here. Last time we bet on the Reds, their bullpen collapsed. If Cincy gets the lead, hopefully they will hold it this time for the big payout.
Bet #2: San Francisco Giants ML -155 (DraftKings)
1.55 units risked to win 1 unit
(Note: This line seems to have moved to -165 while I was typing the write-up. You have a few options. First, you could still take it at that price. I won’t give out -165 picks officially, but it still has value at that price. Second, you should look around at all your books to see if you can find a better price. You should do that anyways with all picks. Third, you could create a -1 runline by splitting your bet between the -1.5 and the ML. You push if SF wins by exactly 1, but it would bring your juice to around -120. I tweeted the play out at -155 around 40 minutes ago. You can see the link to my Twitter in the Intro if you’d like to get the plays a little bit quicker than I post here.)
Outside of one game where the Royals scored 9 runs, they have scored 0, 0, 4, 1, 0 and 3. The Giants, meanwhile, were shutout by Gerrit Cole (no shame there) on Opening Day and by Jhony Brito a couple days later. But outside of those two games, they’ve scored 7, 12, 3 and 16. I think it’s fair to say that these offenses are in two very different places right now. It’s worth continuing to fade KC until their bats show some life.
Things don’t get much better for KC on the mound, as Brad Keller is about as mediocre as they come. He’s posted ERAs over 5.00 each of the last two years, doesn’t strikeout a ton of batters and his control isn’t particularly good. The Giants have shown they can put up huge run totals on a pitcher like this.
For the Giants, Alex Cobb isn’t exactly an ace, but he’s quite good. I’m completely comfortable playing the home team with a much hotter offense and a much better starting pitcher at the price of -155.