Ranking the 2023 MLB Divisional Races
Which divisions will provide the most entertainment throughout the summer?
We are now just 5 days from Opening Day! I am taking a temporary break from the series of articles looking back into MLB history (see here, here and here, if you missed them) and focusing on the upcoming season. Specifically, I want to think about which divisional races should provide the most entertainment throughout 2023.
6. AL West
Coming in last, the American League West. The reigning World Series champion Astros have won the division in five of the last six seasons, with the one lost division occurring in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. This year should become their sixth division title in the last seven.
At the opposite end of the division, the Oakland A’s project to be the worst team in the AL. Barring a huge surprise, they are eliminated from divisional contention already. This team bears little resemblance to the squad that won that 2020 division title.
This leaves the Mariners, Angels and Rangers, likely in that order of potential to upset the Astros. The Mariners finished closest to the Astros in 2022… 16 games back. Julio Rodríguez remains a star surrounded by very capable position players with limited upside. The rotation, on the other hand, has high upside (and very low downside) from #1 through #5.
The Angels and Rangers both finished more than 30 games behind the Astros in 2022 and that was with Trout/Ohtani playing fantastic. The Rangers’ big move this offseason was to add Jacob DeGrom. Assuming he can pitch a full season for the first time since 2019, that should add a handful of wins.
The one major caveat to the above: If Altuve misses more time than expected following his thumb surgery and/or if the thumb injury significantly affects his performance at the plate after he returns, then the Astros become a bit more vulnerable. Missing Altuve will certainly cost a few wins, but the gap between Houston and the field should still be large enough for them to win this division.
5. NL Central
The NL Central’s divisional race should be more entertaining than the AL West, as the Cardinals and Brewers should vie for the top spot, while the Cubs attempt to play spoilers. This potential for competition should prove more interesting than watching another Astros divisional title.
The Cardinals won the division by seven games over the Brewers in 2022; however, the NL Central has not seen back-to-back champs since the Cubs in 2016-2017. The Cardinals added Willson Contreras from Chicago, which gives them a strong offensive catcher to replace the at bats given to Yadier Molina and his feeble .233 OBP. Unfortunately, Paul Goldschmidt should regress after his best season in a Cardinals uniform, which won him the MVP. Still, the offense will be the strength of this team. They need it to carry a below-average pitching staff that lacks an ace.
The Brewers added their own Contreras, William from the Braves. But where the Brewers have the advantage over the Cardinals is in pitching. Their rotation contains two aces, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, along with a strong #3 in Freddy Peralta.
The Cubs are a boring but solid squad. Moving on… The Pirates and Reds are very unlikely to find themselves in the mix, but the path to competing in this division seems more plausible than the A’s competing with the Astros. The Pirates’ have breakout potential up and down their roster: Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Endy Rodriguez (later this season), Bryan Reynolds and Roansy Contreras, among a few others that take a bit more squinting to see the upside scenario. As I’m writing this, I’m liking the Pirates more and more.
The Reds need Joey Votto to bounce back in his age-39 season, Wil Myers to stay healthy, Jonathan India to reverse his sophomore slump, and at least two of Lodolo, Ashcraft and Greene to have breakout pitching years. That’s asking a lot for the Reds to even be competitive with the Cardinals and Brewers.
4. NL West
The NL West sets up similar to the NL Central: two primary contenders (Dodgers and Padres), a lurking spoiler (the Giants) and two teams without a realistic shot, but one of whom could be pesky (the Diamondbacks, not the Rockies. Sorry for that quick second of hope, Colorado!).
Then why do I have the NL West ranked ahead of their doppelganger division? Each of the NL West teams are better than their NL Central counterparts. Dodgers > Cardinals. Padres > Brewers. Giants > Cubs. Diamondbacks > Pirates. Oh, wait. Did I say all of their counterparts? Sorry again, Colorado! The Reds are less miserable than the Rockies.
While people have been predicting this for years, 2023 might actually be the season that the Padres become the Dodgers’ equals. Of course, that’s what people were saying last year and the Padres ended up 22 games back of the Dodgers. Yet, on paper, the Padres arguably have the better team with the additions of Xander Bogaerts, Josh Hader and (a full season of) Juan Soto.
The Dodgers’ additions from last season are less splashy and, frankly, not particularly good: Miguel Rojas, David Peralta, J.D. Martinez and Noah Syndergaard. They will also add rookie Miguel Vargas, who struggled mightily in his 50 MLB plate appearances last season. Max Muncy should be much better this year, after a slow start tanked his 2022 season, and they obviously still have Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Put all that together and this looks like the most vulnerable Dodgers team in awhile, which should make this race quite interesting. Well, at least more interesting than the two divisions above.
3. NL East
We finally make it to a division where a three-team race could unfold. The Braves are rightfully the favorites in this division, but not much separation exists between them and the Mets. That was on display in 2022 when these two teams finished tied at 101 wins. One should expect a similar race this year, even with the Mets’ loss of Edwin Díaz.
The Mets and Braves return largely the same position players (the Braves did add a stud catcher in Sean Murphy to replace the outgoing William Contreras), which are among the best in the league top to bottom. The Mets made a huge upgrade to their starting rotation with the ageless Justin Verlander. They also added a strong mid-rotation guy (to the extent we can project Japanese players in their first MLB season) in Kodai Senga. Of course, the Mets lost oft-injured ace Jacob deGrom, but he pitched only 156 innings for the Mets in the past two seasons combined.
Like the Mets with Díaz, the Phillies suffered a significant loss with Rhys Hoskins’ recent ACL tear knocking his power bat out of the lineup for the season. Unless someone steps up, this will likely cost the Phillies a win or two over the course of the year. That’s not at all a death blow to their season. The defending NL Champs should be competitive for the division title with the addition of star Trea Turner. If the Phillies can remain in the mix until the midseason, then the return of Bryce Harper could be enough to push the Phillies to the top.
Outside of these top three, the Marlins are at least a competitive team who should linger around .500 this season and make life tough for the three division contenders. With Juan Soto gone, the Nationals are much more likely to lose 100 games than compete for this division. Have you seen their roster? It’s almost as bad as the Rockies!
2. AL Central
This was the only division last year with one team above .500 (the Guardians). The White Sox were heavy pre-season favorites to win the division in 2022, but ended up finishing 11 games back. This season, expectations are for a tighter division race between the Guardians, Twins and White Sox. The White Sox may even be the third-best team heading into 2023. Now, none of these three teams are great, but this should be the most crowded finish we’ve looked at yet. Even the Tigers and Royals aren’t completely dead in this division.
The Guardians added Mike Zunino, who has a habit of alternating good seasons with bad. If that pattern continues, then this should be a good year for Zunino! The other offensive addition, Josh Bell, supplies strong on-base skills; however, his power has declined over the past several seasons. Reversing this trend would be a huge boost to Cleveland’s chances. The core of their team remains in place, so they should remain competitive this season.
The Twins will need the Texas Rangers version of Joey Gallo, not the offensive liability he’s become since leaving Texas. Byron Buxton putting together a full healthy season would go a long way toward swinging this division. There’s just no evidence that’s possible. The addition of Pablo López gives them a reliable starter with ace-like upside.
The clearest path to the White Sox making good on last year’s expectations goes through their outfield. Luis Robert, Andrew Benintendi and Eloy Jiménez (I know, he mainly plays DH, but stick with me here) must play at their best. The latter two are coming off strong seasons, which they will need to repeat, and Robert needs to bounce back to his 2021 budding star version. Without these three performing, the White Sox are likely to come up short again.
Overall, not much separates these three teams at this point. That should lead to a fun summer, especially if a fourth team works their way into the race.
1. AL East
The AL East features an entire division that can compete for the division title. The Yankees are rightfully the preseason favorites, but the gap between them and the Blue Jays/Rays is minimal. The Orioles, who finished four games above .500 last season, proved they can be a winning team. The only team with a losing record in this division in 2022 was the Boston Red Sox, who should be improved in 2023.
For the Yankees, rookie SS Anthony Volpe and veteran DH Giancarlo Stanton are the big wild cards. Volpe won’t necessarily start the season in New York, but he should be called up quickly. He has tremendous power potential for a shortstop that could give the Yankees another non-Judge threat in their lineup. Stanton missing a large portion of the season with injury has come to be expected. Last year added a new wrinkle: a sub-.300 OBP for the first time in Stanton’s career. The underlying numbers suggest this career low was largely a product of bad luck. Yankees fans need to hope that’s true. Lastly, the addition of Carlos Rodón should bolster a strong rotation; however, Rodón will miss the early season with a forearm injury. Early indications are that it’s not too serious, but it turns out that forearms are quite important to throwing a ball.
The Blue Jays’ primary additions were Daulton Varsho and Chris Bassitt. Those may not sound like game changers, but Varsho has improved in each of his first three seasons. There’s reason to believe he could post a 30 HR/20 SB season in 2023. Chris Bassitt has become a reliable innings eater with #2 upside. Those types of guys are underrated.
Wander Franco had a solid second season for the Rays, but it did not live up to Franco’s rookie year. Taking one step back in year 2 is not an uncommon path for future stars to take. Now he needs to take two steps forward in 2023 for the Rays to win this division. If that progress could be paired with a healthy season from Tyler Glasnow in his return from Tommy John surgery, then the Rays could be contenders for more than just the division.
The Orioles have built a strong young group of position players. But, their pitching staff puts a cap on their potential. The Red Sox have seen too much talent leave in the past couple seasons without sufficient replacements. The arrival of Masataka Yoshida provides some excitement for Red Sox fans (and baseball fans in general). The question is whether the team’s performance through the summer will cause that excitement to fade rather quickly.
The AL East features the three strongest division title contenders, along with two modest longshots and zero teams that are done before the season started. That sets the AL East up to be the most exciting division race of 2023!