The MLB Teams Most Likely to Outperform Expectations
These four teams will be better than most people expect
Only 3 days until Opening Day! Soon we will have actual games to discuss. Until then, let’s keep thinking about how this season might play out.
Last year, the Guardians, Astros, Mets and Dodgers all surpassed their preseason win totals by double digits on the way to winning their divisions (well, in the case of the Mets, blowing a large division lead). But, no team was more surprising than the Baltimore Orioles.
The Orioles surpassed their preseason Vegas win total of 62.5 in game 121 of the season. They would go on to win 83 games. If you bet on the over 62.5, that was the easiest money of your life! The next win total clinch did not occur until game 135, when the Tigers sealed their fate of under 78.5 wins.
So, who is most likely to be this year’s Baltimore Orioles?
Miami Marlins
Vegas win total: 75.5 wins
The Marlins have far and away the highest expectations of the four teams on this list. Those expectations, though, are still for a fourth-place finish in the NL East. It is possible that Miami could finish in fourth place and still surpass this win total. In the AL East, the Orioles finished fourth with 83 wins and the Red Sox finished fifth with 78 wins. Yet, to win 76 games, the Marlins will likely need to finish ahead of at least one of the Phillies, Braves or Mets. The Phillies faltering appears to be their best chance, although the Mets are heavily reliant on a 38 year old and a 40 year old atop their rotation.
The path for the Marlins’ success comes down to their hitting improving enough to match what was a top 10 rotation in 2022. That seems quite feasible. Catcher Jacob Stallings was horrible at the plate in his first season in Miami, but his time in Pittsburgh established a baseline of offensive competency. Expect some positive regression for Stallings. If that doesn’t happen, the Marlins might just shift more playing time to the younger Nick Fortes, who has a better bat than Stallings anyways. Speaking of positive regression, Avisaíl García had easily the worst offensive season of his career, hitting .224 with a .266 OBP and .317 SLG. At just 32 years old, García should also bounce back.
Luis Arraez was the big off-season acquisition for Miami. Coming off a 2023 in which Arraez took a large leap forward, he gives the Marlins an offensive threat at the top of the lineup. If Arraez can add some power to his bat without sacrificing too much average, then he’s headed to stardom. The Marlins also added a very solid middle infielder in Jean Segura.
Speaking of blossoming stars, Jazz Chisholm was also on his way to stardom before a June back injury cut short his season. If the Marlins get an additional 80+ games of Jazz this season, that alone should add a few wins to last season’s total.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Vegas win total: 67.5 wins
In my preview of the divisional races, I spoke about the Pirates as being loaded with players that have breakout potential. Thus, it’s not surprising to see them listed here. The Pirates won only 62 games last season. To surpass their preseason win total, they will need to add six more wins this year. Unlike the Marlins, they could surpass this win total while still likely finishing fourth in the division.
This year’s Pittsburgh Pirates will bear little resemblance to the 2022 version that lost 100 games. They had a busy off-season, signing six free agents and making three trades. The best of their free agent signings was bringing back former Pirates great Andrew McCutchen. If nothing else, he can provide them with a competent bat that historically crushes lefties. Another veteran signing, Carlos Santana’s slugging days are well behind him, but that’s another average bat in the middle of this lineup. For a team that was one of the worst offenses in the league last year, average bats are a massive upgrade. Ji-Man Choi, another off-season acquisition, provides consistent above-average offensive performance via his high OBP.
Hitting in front of Cutch, Santana and Choi will likely be second-year SS Oneil Cruz, who has as high a ceiling as any young player in the sport, and Bryan Reynolds. Cruz flashed his potential for a 30 HR/20 SB season in his half-season 2022 debut. The next step will be bringing down his strikeout rate to the modest levels he had in the minors. Cruz showed progress on that front in his red-hot September and has built on that pitch selectivity in spring training this year. While Bryan Reynolds’ 2022 season was a disappointment after a huge 2021, it was still very solid. If he can even approach that 2021 level again, then the Pirates should pick up a couple extra wins there.
Pittsburgh has two other young position players poised to make an impact. Third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes already provides considerable defensive value to Pittsburgh, but he has not been an asset offensively since he slashed an outrageous .376/.442/.682 in his 24 game 2020 debut. If the launch angle revolution can get Hayes to start hitting more balls in the air, this could unlock some power in his bat. At catcher, Pittsburgh has a top 25 prospect in Endy Rodriguez who will debut later this season. Given that current catcher Austin Hedges is a major offensive liability, even the worst case scenario for Rodriguez’s performance will be an upgrade. The question is simply when will Rodriguez get the call.
The starting rotation has less promise than the position players; however, top prospect Roansy Contreras should build on his successful rookie season. Top 100 prospect Luis Ortiz should debut later this season, which gives them a second starting pitcher with potential for a high ceiling. Perhaps the long-awaited Mitch Keller breakout season will finally happen?
The Pirates almost certainly won’t be competing for the division title this season, but they seem more likely to finish around .500 than to lose 100 games again.
Oakland Athletics and Washington Nationals
OAK Vegas win total: 59.5 wins
WAS Vegas win total: 58.5 wins
I am going to lump these last two teams together. The expectations for both are extremely low. Almost everyone expects these two teams to finish last place in their respective divisions. To be honest, they almost certainly will. I am not going to make a long case about how actually the A’s and Nats are sneaky playoff contenders. They aren’t.
But, are they good enough to win at least 60 games? Of course. It only takes one or two players breaking out or a handful of players playing a bit above expectations to avoid 100 losses. For Oakland, perhaps the power second-year catcher Shea Langeliers displayed in the minors and his rookie debut translates to a full MLB season. And, maybe Jesús Aguilar reverts back to his career averages after last season’s disaster. Tony Kemp just needs some BABIP positive regression to reverse his 2022 decline. Same with Ramón Laureano. If you follow Korean Baseball, Drew Rucinski has been dominating KBO batters the last four years for the NC Dinos. He’s making his return to the MLB, and it’s with Oakland (once he gets off the IL). Japanese starting pitcher Shintaro Fujinami will be debuting with Oakland this season as well and he has potential to be a very solid player. Again, I’m not arguing the Astros need to watch their backs. But, Oakland was awful last season and still won 60 games. They can do that again.
I guess I should say something nice about the Nationals roster now. Well, I won’t do that. I will just point to this: the Nationals were 17-59 against the other four teams in their division last season. That, of course, included two 100-win teams with the Braves and Mets. And, the Nationals were just as bad against Philadelphia and Miami. Outside of their division, the Nationals were a much less embarrassing 38-48. It’s unlikely they will be that bad against their division again in 2023.